Shaping the future of gardens
The garden market is changing. Professionals must adapt to meet the expectations of customers in search of authenticity and renewal. The trend consultant Manuel Rucar tells more.
David Fouillé. What's your view of the current and future garden market in France?
Manuel Rucar. Since the end of 2022, the garden market has been in turmoil, with unsettled weather, inflation leaving people not much money to spend on improving their living environment, internal tensions such as the recent revelations by Mediapart about the management of Truffaut, and a garden centre market that has been generally mature since at least 2015, and which in 2024 lost 2% of its shop base through outright closures.
While it is difficult to give an overall assessment of the retail garden sector, must be said that the market’s fragmentation is a positive: the independents seem to be more agile and are repositioning themselves. Discount chains such as Action, Teddy and B&M are making progress. Good florists are thriving, while others are disappearing. Concept stores are becoming more and more differentiated, and landscape gardeners are moving down a gear by accepting that their customers 'phase' their projects over several years, even if it means doing the work themselves! The gardening profession is changing. Consumables are expected at the lowest possible price, and quality products seem to be in short supply, if not impossible to find! What remains is a very narrow but deep range of mid-range products, considered too expensive for the durability they offer, particularly in furniture, accessories and lighting. Some chains have opted for a retail approach without advertising, without merchandising, without gimmicks: a bare or almost bare product, as at BricoDépôt in DIY, Normal for everyday products or JMT for pet care.
In figures
While online sales seem to be levelling off at 13% of market share, supermarkets and DIY stores remain the volume leaders, with 16% and 30% of market share respectively (LSA 2024), a virtually unchanged breakdown over the last 10 years.
D.F. Is this the end of household’s garden love affair?
M.R. Actually, quite the opposite! The attention of the general public and their love for our sector is definitely still present! As evidenced by the growing number books, garden fairs and Instagram and TikTok accounts dealing specifically with the subject. Goran the permaculturist, for example, has more than a million followers, as do the Frenchie Gardener and, more recently, the landscapers Indiana José and Marvin from Atmoss-Vert, who have racked up more than a million views on certain videos, proving the interest of the general public for garden-related subjects!
D.F. What does the consumer we need to win back look like?
M.R. As was predicted three years ago, the year 2025 marks a demographic shift: Millennials (aged 25-43) now account for 40% of consumers, according to INSEE 2024, and 50% of spending in the leisure sector (45.4% in the garden sector in September 2024). Note the consumer profile of the "addict", who alone accounts for 26.5% of the sums spent on garden products over the last three years.
D.F. So is this segment the future of the garden?
M.R. Let's not forget that this generation is characterised by its desire to 'enjoy life' and devotes a large part of its income to leisure activities (including travel and audio and video streaming platforms), and that we also need to prepare our market for the imminent arrival of generation Z, which is totally changing its relationship with consumption, the world and the future, with all the implications that we have seen in the world of work.
Tomorrow
During the summer of 2024, Chlorosphère, with the support of 50 retail professionals, published the Renatura manifesto to define the garden centre of the future: it would be a third place where services take precedence over retail. With allotments, showroom gardens, self-service materials stores, recycling centres, waste disposal centres, second-hand workshops, and educational areas, the professionals are unanimous: it’s always people first!
2025, when Millennials tip the balance!
Tired of the hectic pace of the city, the Millennial has recently bought an old house in the country. In search of authenticity and a return to nature, they have plunged into the gardening world. Closely following the advice of specialist influencers, they spend long hours landscaping their outdoors. Intrigued by everything botanical, they have a well-stocked library on the subject and like to wander aimlessly around forest paths. They are ecologically aware and are committed to preserving the environment and living in harmony with nature. Surrounded by pets, they have a beautiful garden and are constantly looking for new ways to make their garden more naturally self-sufficient. They won’t forgo aesthetics in a bid to beautify their outdoor space. They are prepared to invest to create a unique garden.
Purchasing motives:
• Authentic products
• Tips and good ideas
• New practices
• Uncommon or botanical varieties
Purchasing behaviour:
They seek to connect with the experts, getting personalised advice, while supporting the local economy. Their approach is often eco-responsible, aiming to make sustainable choices.
Example:
They prefer to buy their Christmas tree directly from a nursery in a field, and cut it down themselves!
Their gardening habits:
They favour form AND substance. They are attracted to unusual varieties, and show them off to their best advantage. They draw a lot of their inspiration from Pinterest and other social media. They are prepared to devote time to their garden! It's almost their biggest cost heading and their greatest source of pride.
Example: They aren’t perfect, but every year they try out new things, and their latest fad is growing wasabi and mate!
From Netflix to the garden
D.F. In your 2026 trend guide, we were struck by one phenomenon. Can you tell us more?
M.R. The Netflix production "Bridgerton" has had a considerable impact on consumption, far beyond its enduring audience since 2020. Its refined aesthetics, sumptuous costumes and romantic world have created a veritable craze, giving rise to what is known as the Regencycore style, which can be seen in fashion, interior design, tableware and, increasingly, in the garden. Not only has this successful series changed the tastes of Millennials by popularising the Regency style, but it has also left an indelible mark on our desire for a garden. The series' sumptuous English gardens and flowerbeds have generated unprecedented interest (the series has racked up over 299 million views worldwide) in a return to classic elegance. The Bridgerton universe, with its glamorous parties, luxurious interiors and passionate romances, represents an ideal of life to which many viewers aspire. This escapism is reflected in a desire to appropriate the aesthetic codes of the series. We could point to the INOHA 2023/2024 study, which found an annual volume of more than 850,000 online searches for "greenhouses", and the return of outdoor furniture, Regent-style cast aluminium pieces and fringed parasols to the Amazon bestseller list. In terms of the plant palette, wisteria is of course popular. Shade-loving and fast-growing perennials are also part of the Bridgerton cast: astilbes, foxgloves, delphinium. Already announced as a key theme for forthcoming weddings, the Regency style will also be a theme in floristry and events. Nike, Ladurée, Versace, Lush, Kiko and Primark all reported a 63% increase in sales of Regencycore products during the weeks when season 3 was streamed.
The impact on web listing was quite phenomenal, with a strong impact caused by the 2.4 million mentions of Bridgerton. With the series expected to return in spring 2026, the showrunner Jess Brownell is maintaining the suspense around season 4 (out of 8!) of what promises to be "her best work" and will have, obviously have an impact on our garden styles. The colours have already been announced: mauve and light blue as the backdrop for these romances from another era, popularising forgotten outdoor features that become equipment for garden parties: gazebos, kiosks, lampposts and tiered fountains. All of which add a touch of authenticity and quality to a market dominated by inexpensive, consumable products. This phenomenon will go hand in hand with the cream, off-white and beige colours that have gradually replaced anthracite, previously the king of outdoor landscaping.
D.F. Will we be treated to a Bridgerton-style garden at the JDC 2025 entrance?
M.R To set the tone, Chlorosphère, JDC Garden Trends and their exhibiting partners are planning a Regencycore themed entrance to the show. We can mention the nurseries and partners of the Silence, ça pousse! brand. With their climbing plants on the Cerland structures to bring a bit of height! Join us in Marseille from 25 to 27 March for in-depth exploration of the 2026 trends!