A somewhat positive year

On the back of a sluggish 2023, the gardening market returned to growth in 2024. The sector demonstrated its adaptability amid a tense economic climate. Here we take a closer look.
The gardening market perked up again in 2024. Sales are estimated at €8.2 billion. According to figures from the consultants NielsenIQ & GfK, with €3.3 billion analysed between January and October 2024, growth stood at 7% compared to 2023 and 26% compared to 2019. This result is praiseworthy: this performance comes at a time of great consumer caution. They limited their spending due to inflation that was still palpable, as a recent study by INSEE points out.

Powered tools remain a mainstay of the market, accounting for 44% of sales. Mowers and brushcutters made a particularly strong contribution to this dynamic. Crop protection also continued to grow, driven by high demand for weedkillers. Guillaume Mulleret, market intelligence director at NielsenIQ & GfK, points out: “Consumers are now turning to solutions that are both effective and environmentally friendly”.
As right as rain!
While the weather helped the tools category, it penalised others. Spring 2024, a
crucial period for sales, saw a sharp drop, particularly in sections such as watering. Quite simply, there was nobody in the shops! Seeds, garden furniture and all outdoor leisure products suffered from a lack of interest. As a result, stocks began to accumulate. The sales decline was also caused by the property crisis. As a sign of the times, the number of new swimming pools built fell for the first time in a long time, to 100,000.

Léa Aden, garden consultant at NielsenIQ & GfK, sounds a warning: “The market remains sensitive not only to the weather, but also to consumers’ growing budgetary constraints. Categories considered non-essential are often the first to suffer.” These results for 2024, marked by varying fortunes, illustrate the sector’s resilience and ability to meet new consumer expectations while adapting to fluctuating conditions.
A market to monitor
The gardening sector is continuing to evolve. As Manuel Rucar pointed out at the opening talk at JDC Garden Trends last year, the entry level segment continued to grow in 2024. Retailers such as Aldi and Action are strengthening their positions. At the same time, the premium sector is soaring, driven by consumers prepared to invest in top-end products that combine quality and durability. On the other hand, the mid-range sector, often perceived as lacking in added value, is struggling to find its audience.

Another highlight is that online sales are continuing to grow. But above all, it is the emergence of new international competitors that causing concern. A new player, the Chinese website Temu, is threatening to rock the boat with its unbeatable prices. The application is a big hit in France! But product quality is questionable, which could limit its impact over time. Above all, Temu is not running a profit yet, and is putting the producers it employs through the wringer. Chinese SMEs might yet rebel against a penalties system that some see as a racket. The Chinese and European authorities could also intervene to stop the rot.
Light at the end of the tunnel
With growth forecasted at between 1.2% and 1.5% inflation under control, the outlook for the gardening market is encouraging. But with domestic political tensions in France and international uncertainties, the sector will have to remain vigilant, as we discover below.

What do 2025 and 2026 hold in store? While we don’t have a crystal ball, we can bet on moderate growth and controlled inflation. According to the Bank of France, growth in France should amount to 1.2% in 2025 and rise to 1.5% in 2026. These figures point to a gradual recovery after two tumultuous years. Inflation is expected to be contained at 1.5% in 2025, rising slightly to 1.7% in 2026. These figures provide an encouraging backdrop for the gardening sector... barring any surprises! In France, 20 million households share a passion for outdoor living. But households nonetheless need to perceive a levelling-off in inflation, which did not happen last year.

Another reason for hope is the expected cut in interest rates by the European Central Bank. This should help to revive the property market. And when there are house moves and new owners, there's often a need to invest in gardens: a boon for the market’s players. For the time being, French people are continuing to save instead of spending. Only one dark mark remains on the horizon: rising unemployment.

Uncertainties
The national political context remains tense, with a National Assembly without an overall majority. This situation will continue until at least September 2025, when Parliament could be dissolved again. From an international perspective, the first few years of the Trump presidency in the United States look set to be mixed. Growth is expected to reach 2.3% in 2025. But it could quickly run out of steam in 2026, depending on economic decisions, particularly on tariffs. The economic situation in China is gloomy, marked by an exodus of foreign investors and the never-ending property crisis. Weak domestic demand in China is forcing companies in the Middle Kingdom to slash their export prices. They could win even more market share from their European rivals.

The good news is that the Middle East conflict seems to be coming to an end. Only time will tell whether container ships will be able to use the Suez Canal again without the risk of being attacked by the Houthis in Yemen. In Ukraine, could the sound of cannon fire be replaced by peace talks? After three years of war, the two combatants are at the end of their tethers. The Russian economy is in tatters. So there are still grounds for hope.

While the economic fundamentals offer a favourable outlook for gardening in 2025 and 2026, the uncertain environment is a cause for caution. One thing is certain: in a country where every square metre of greenery is precious, the sector will adapt to meet customer expectations. And there will be plenty more innovation to come in 2026.


TOP OF THE POPS
1. Slug pellets: +76
Slugs beware! With the weather favourable to their proliferation, gardeners came out all guns blazing, resulting in a 76% hike in sales – a new record!

2. Pressure washers: +37%
When the rain comes, the mud follows. Fortunately, pressure washers came to the rescue of patios and driveways. An increase of 37% is akin to a standing ovation for these machines.

3. Garden boots: +31%
With a very wet spring, boots became the 'it’ accessory of the year. Gardeners appeared to have taken the 'mud festival' style literally.

4.Hedge trimmers and brushcutters: +21%
Whether for sculpting a hedge or clearing a path, these tools won over gardening enthusiasts. A double victory for hedge trimmers and brushcutters, both up 21%.

5. Lawnmowers: +14%
Lawnmowers were hard at work this year! Between long grasses and lawns to tame, they posted a respectable 14% increase. Another powerful success story.

IN THE DOLDRUMS
1. Sprinklers: -37%
Rain after rain, sprinklers stayed in the cupboard. With a drop of 37%, these accessories took a hit. After all, rain is free!

2. Irrigation timers: down 26%
Why programme a watering when the sky does all the hard work? Down 26%, these tools clearly lost the battle against the weather.

3. Garden furniture: -8%
Between showers and thunderstorms, outdoor aperitifs took on water. The result: an 8% fall in garden furniture sales. Even deckchairs preferred to stay tucked up indoors.

4. Barbecues: -6%
Despite a slight upturn in sales in August (+15%), barbecue sales did not take off. A 6% drop that put a damper on fans of griddles and grills.

5. Rotavators: -2%
Soggy ground proved too much for rotavators. With a drop of 2%, they found themselves quite literally stuck in the mud.